有色金属日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment is cautious due to uncertainties such as US copper import tariffs and the performance of various metals in different supply - demand situations. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on short - term and medium - term trends, with a focus on supply, demand, inventory, and price resistance levels [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper oscillating lower. The market awaits the implementation of US copper import tariffs. A decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average. Hold short positions near the integer level [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Seasonal demand decline led to a 3.5 - million - ton increase in aluminum ingot social inventory in the past week. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's oscillation, with short - term pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long - AD short - AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices have risen, but the market is in surplus. Trade alumina short near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [2] Zinc - Black metal prices stopped falling and rebounded, causing an uneven adjustment in zinc prices. With increasing supply and weak demand, zinc social inventory is rising. The market shows a split between macro, capital, and fundamentals. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and wait for clear signals [3] Lead - With a weak supply - demand situation, lead's rebound is slow. The upper resistance is at the 20 - day moving average. Supply pressure eases slightly, and the price shows support at 16,800 yuan/ton. Due to consumption concerns, the traditional peak - season performance needs verification. Lightly go long based on cost [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillates. After the hype of anti - involution题材, nickel may return to its fundamentals. Nickel iron inventory decreased, while pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed. Wait for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated lower, with short - term support at 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates. Market rumors suggest some mines in Jiangxi have resumed production. Total inventory is at a recent high. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range. Try a short - term long position with a light position [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly. Spot prices are falling. Although the fundamentals are weak, with increasing production capacity in some areas and decreased demand for organic silicon DMC, the price is at a historical low. Consider a short - term long position with a light position [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose significantly. Spot prices are in a certain range. The supply - demand is in a tight balance. After a sharp rise, the market is in a wide - range shock. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices and control positions [10]