电力及公用事业行业月报：雅江下游水电工程开工，中国华电新能源发电平台上市-20250729

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power and utilities sector [6][10]. Core Insights - In June 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a cumulative total of 4841.8 billion kWh for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.7% growth [2][18]. - The report highlights a continuous increase in electricity consumption from urban and rural residents, with the first and third industries showing higher growth rates compared to the second industry [2][19]. - As of June 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power accounted for 45.85%, while the share of thermal power decreased to 40.42% [2][34]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The power and utilities index underperformed the market in July 2025, with a 2.12% increase compared to a 5.07% rise in the CSI 300 index, resulting in a 2.95 percentage point underperformance [5][10]. - The sub-industry performance in July ranked as follows: environmental and water services (4.43%), thermal power (4.16%), gas (3.51%), heating or others (3.32%), other generation (2.91%), grid (2.33%), and hydropower (-1.98%) [10]. Industry Supply and Demand - In June 2025, the industrial electricity generation was 796.3 billion kWh, a 1.7% year-on-year increase, with the first half of 2025 showing a total of 4537.1 billion kWh, up 0.8% [2][26]. - The report notes a slowdown in growth for thermal and wind power, while nuclear and solar power generation saw accelerated growth rates [2][26][27]. Coal and Gas Market Conditions - In June 2025, the industrial raw coal output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year-on-year increase, while coal imports decreased significantly by 25.8% [3][40]. - The price of thermal coal at northern ports was 650 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.69% but a yearly decline of 15.58% [3][42]. - Natural gas production in June 2025 was 21.2 billion cubic meters, a 4.6% year-on-year increase, while imports showed a slight increase of 1.15% [4][53]. Hydropower and Water Conditions - As of July 24, 2025, the inflow and outflow rates at the Three Gorges Dam were 20,000 and 15,800 cubic meters per second, respectively, with both rates showing a decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [6][60]. Provincial Electricity Supply and Demand - In June 2025, Henan province's total electricity consumption was 40.319 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.79%, while the total generation was 33.531 billion kWh, showing a slight decline of 0.53% [6][64].