银河期货油脂日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the high price of oils and fats will correct. One can consider buying on dips after the correction. For YP09, a short - term rebound is possible, and one can consider shorting the spread after the rebound. For P15, one can consider widening the spread after the correction. In the options market, one can consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: On July 29, 2025, for soybeans, the 2509 closing price was 8226 with a rise of 106. In different regions, spot prices varied, and the basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 200, 150, and 110 respectively. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8970 with a rise of 24, and the basis also differed by region. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9492 with a rise of 86, and the basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi also had their own values [3]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybeans was 38 with a fall of 6, that of palm oil was 2 with a fall of 12, and that of rapeseed oil was 50 with a rise of 1 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 09 contract of Y - P was (744) with a fall of 20, OI - Y was 1266, and OI - P was 522 with a rise of 62. The oil - meal ratio was 2.76 with a rise of 0.04 [3]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil's盘面 profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was (111), and the 盘面 profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (869) [3]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybeans was 59.1 million tons, that of palm oil was 61.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil was 67.3 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: If the Indonesian government implements the B50 biofuel regulation, domestic palm oil consumption demand is expected to increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of the country's 2024 crude palm oil production of 48.2 million tons. The implementation of this regulation is expected to support palm oil prices in 2026, offsetting the negative impact of the US import tariff increase. Starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 19% and 25% import tariffs on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [5]. - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: As of July 25, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, a 4.08% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation decreased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. With the arrival of palm oil and inventory accumulation, the upward movement of the futures price was suppressed. One can consider buying on dips [6]. - Soybean Oil: On the day, the soybean oil futures price rose by more than 1%. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 2.2389 million tons, and the operating rate was 62.94%. As of July 25, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The basis was stable. With a large amount of domestic soybeans arriving at ports and high - level crushing, soybean oil entered a phased inventory - accumulation period. One can consider buying on dips [7][9]. - Rapeseed Oil: On the day, the rapeseed oil futures price slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 56,000 tons, and the operating rate was 14.93%. As of July 25, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 673,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. The spot market was inactive, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchasing and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term, expect a correction in the high price of oils and fats, and consider buying on dips after the correction [11]. - Arbitrage: YP09 may rebound in the short - term, and one can consider shorting the spread after the rebound. P15 can be considered for widening the spread after the correction [11]. - Options: After the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P and OI - Y [15][18].