Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - Important Information: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - Trading Strategy: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - Related Information: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - Logic Analysis: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - Trading Strategy: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - Related Information: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - Trading Logic: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - Related Information: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - Trading Logic: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - Trading Strategy: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - Related Information: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - Logic Analysis: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - Trading Strategy: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - Related Information: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - Logic Analysis: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - Trading Strategy: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - Related Information: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - Logic Analysis: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - Related Information: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - Logic Analysis: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - Related Information: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - Logic Analysis: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - Trading Strategy: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - Related Information: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - Strategy: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Market Review: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - Related Information: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - Strategy: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - Important Information: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - Logic Analysis: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250729
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-29 12:43