聚酯链日报：PX供应趋紧支撑走强，关注PTA加工费表现-20250729

Group 1: Report's Core View - PX supply tightening supports price increase, and attention should be paid to PTA processing fees. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain cost-driven fluctuations in the short term, with PTA processing fees at risk of compression [1][4] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 28, the PX main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, up 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4936.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2] - Supply side: Although PX devices maintain a high operating rate, the delayed commissioning of Shenghong Petrochemical's new device and temporary maintenance of some Asian devices may lead to lower-than-expected supply growth in the third quarter. PTA manufacturers' load has increased to 76.3%, but the release of Hengli Huizhou's new production capacity has been delayed, and the 4.5 million-ton Fuhai Chuang device is scheduled for maintenance in August, temporarily alleviating supply pressure [2] - Demand side: The polyester operating rate remains at a high of 89.5%, but the average daily turnover in the Light Textile City has dropped below 10 million meters, showing signs of seasonal weakening in terminal orders. As the pre - effect of overseas Christmas orders weakens, the grey fabric inventory in the weaving sector has accumulated to a high of 40 days, which may force the polyester sector to reduce its load, increasing the pressure of marginal weakening in PTA demand [2] - Inventory side: PTA factory inventory remains at a historical low of 5 days, but social circulation inventory has accumulated to 2.4 million tons, with the total visible inventory increasing by 12% year - on - year. Considering the continuation of the mainstream suppliers' strategy of controlling shipments and the downstream polyester raw material inventory only maintained at 8 days, the structural inventory contradiction may intensify short - term price fluctuations [3] Polyester - On July 25, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6606.0 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6660.0 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 54.0 yuan/ton [4] - Supply side: The PX price fluctuated upward during the week (from 6,810 yuan/ton on July 18 to 7,062 yuan/ton on July 25), and the PTA futures price also showed a trend of first falling and then rising (weekly low of 4744 yuan/ton, closing at 4936 yuan/ton), indicating that upstream cost support is gradually strengthening [4] - Demand side: The MA15 trading volume in the Light Textile City continued to decline (from 552.27 million meters on July 18 to 508.53 million meters on July 25), indicating weakening terminal textile orders [4] - Inventory side: The current inventory of polyester staple fiber (revised value of 4.96 days) is significantly lower than the average of the past five years, but the inventory of polyester filament types such as DTY (28.42 days), FDY (22.19 days), and POY (20.40 days) is at a medium - to - high historical level, reflecting that the inventory pressure of filament types is still accumulating [4] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 6,890 yuan/ton, down 2.44% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 209,146 lots, up 10.06%; the main contract open interest was 112,959 lots, down 6.91% [5] - PTA futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 4,812 yuan/ton, down 2.51% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 1,061,018 lots, down 11.36%; the main contract open interest was 990,440 lots, down 8.23% [5] - Short - fiber futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 6,482 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 137,717 lots, down 4.82%; the main contract open interest was 93,598 lots, down 9.06% [5] - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, and polyester filament remained stable or changed slightly during the period [5][6] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Trump mentioned that Powell might be ready to cut interest rates on July 28 [7] - Middle - East conflicts: Israel announced a limited - time tactical cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, and there were potential target statements against Iran; the Yemeni Houthi rebels threatened ships related to Israeli ports [7] - National Bureau of Statistics: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [7] Supply and Demand - Demand - On July 25, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 6.21 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 50.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 4.55 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 1.67 million meters [9] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - PX's price increase may be affected by supply tightening or rising crude oil costs. PTA's price has not risen synchronously due to stable supply or unchanged downstream demand. Future attention should be paid to PX device dynamics and the improvement of polyester operating rate and the terminal market. If PX supply remains tight and PTA demand rises, PTA prices may increase; otherwise, PTA may remain volatile or decline [36]