全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第125期)-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with expected trading potentially causing signs of a reversal in Q3, though the actual exhaustion is expected in mid - early October [4] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA (National Carbon Emission Allowance) main targets remain weak, with 11000 tons listed and 20000 tons in bulk deals [2] - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has a listed volume of 5700 tons at an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase [2][8] Price Forecast - Carbon prices may remain volatile before August and trend upward from September [4] Investment Strategy - Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before August [2] Data Tables - CEA (2019 - 2024) closing prices range from 71.34 to 74.50 yuan/ton, with CEA23 and CEA24 down 0.20% and 0.01% respectively [6] - CCER has a trading volume of 5700 tons, an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, and an accumulated volume of 2399000 tons [8]