写在国债买卖一周年之际

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the history, current situation, and future prospects of China's central bank's treasury bond trading. It analyzes the operations and impacts of treasury bond trading in 2024 and 2025, draws lessons from overseas central banks' bond - buying practices, and discusses the future evolution of China's treasury bond trading tool [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bond Trading History Review - Before 2024: The central bank mainly participated in treasury bond trading through repurchase agreements to inject short - term liquidity. It rarely directly bought treasury bonds, and the few purchases were mainly to support special treasury bond issuance [10] - In 2024: The central bank started to include treasury bond trading in open - market operations. It conducted "buy - short and sell - long" operations, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in August. The operations aimed at liquidity management and curve regulation [19][20] - In the first half of 2025: The central bank suspended open - market treasury bond purchases in January. The reasons included controllable government bond supply pressure, the availability of alternative tools, and the need to avoid strong market expectations. In June, market discussions about restarting the operation emerged, but it did not happen [28][32] 2. Overseas Insights on Central Bank Bond - Buying - Fed's "Scarce Reserves" Framework: Before 2008, the Fed used this framework. Treasury bond trading was a liquidity management tool, and small - scale trading could affect the federal funds rate and other interest rates [39] - Fed's Bond - Buying with QE and Twist Operations: From 2008 - 2014, the Fed used large - scale asset - purchase programs and twist operations to influence the yield curve and long - term interest rates [52][53] - BOJ's YCC Practice: Since 1999, Japan has implemented QE. In 2016, it introduced YCC to control the yield curve more precisely, aiming to achieve inflation targets and address negative impacts of previous policies [55][57] 3. Outlook on Central Bank Bond - Buying - Current Situation: China's central bank holds a relatively low proportion of treasury bonds compared to the Fed and the BOJ. Commercial banks are the main holders of Chinese treasury bonds [63] - Reasons for the Difference: The short implementation time of treasury bond trading in China, different tool positioning, and limited treasury bond liquidity are the main reasons [76] - Future Deduction: In operation, there may be more expectation management. The tool will focus on liquidity management and curve regulation. The restart window may be around August - September. There will also be optimization of supporting measures [81][83][84]