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碳酸锂日报:供应端行政审查预期影响渐微碳酸锂高位回落-20250729
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-29 13:10

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit compared with the previous trading day. The basis weakened to - 9,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price discount to the futures further widened [2] - The position of the main contract increased from 362,054 lots on July 18 to 491,088 lots on July 25, an increase of 35.6%. The market divergence intensified, with both short - hedging and long - speculation forces entering the market. The trading volume decreased from 1.77 million lots to 1.2 million lots week - on - week, and the trading activity declined marginally [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, but the compliance issue of lithium mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi triggered expectations of supply tightening. If the mining right review is not completed on time, production capacity may be limited. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 62.2%. Coupled with the maintenance and shutdown of some production lines of enterprises such as Jiangte Motor and Zangge Mining, short - term supply - side disturbances were strengthened [3] - Demand side: The prices of cathode materials continued the slow upward trend. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 240 yuan to 33,495 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.47% to 53,250 yuan/ton. The retail of new energy vehicles decreased by 12% month - on - month in July, and the terminal demand showed seasonal weakness. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate battery cells were basically flat, and downstream replenishment was still mainly based on rigid demand, lacking explosive drivers [3] - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate has increased for four consecutive weeks to 143,170 physical tons, and the warehouse receipt pressure has further accumulated, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39% [3] c. Market Summary - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual impact of the Jiangxi mining right review progress on supply and the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From July 25 to July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton to 73,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.19%. The basis increased from - 9,920 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.29%. The position of the main contract decreased from 491,088 lots to 378,472 lots, a decrease of 22.93%. The trading volume decreased from 1,203,424 lots to 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 16.46%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,600 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33%. The market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 745 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased from 850 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 53,000 yuan/ton to 53,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 116,595 yuan/ton to 116,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,255 yuan/ton to 33,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% [6] - From July 18 to July 25, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased from 62.70% to 62.20%, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased from 142,620 physical tons to 143,170 physical tons, an increase of 0.39%. The prices of various types of battery cells remained basically unchanged [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 28, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,737 yuan/ton, a increase of 991 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 - 75,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,900 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 - 72,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,700 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. At the beginning of this week, the lithium carbonate futures market dropped sharply, and the main contract hit the daily limit. This price fluctuation was mainly affected by two factors: on the one hand, it was driven by the linkage effect of the general decline in the prices of other commodities; on the other hand, the news of a mine in Jiangxi continued to disturb the market sentiment. After the futures price dropped significantly, the downstream procurement demand was significantly released, the market inquiry activity increased significantly, and the increase in trading volume pushed the spot price center to move up steadily [7] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 23, from July 1 - 20, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 54.9%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. From July 1 - 20, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [8] c. Industry News - On July 24, large - scale orders were finalized, large - scale funds were quickly deployed, investment and financing and IPOs were booming, and concept stocks set off a daily limit wave. In 2025, the trillion - level humanoid robot market exploded, and various capitals poured into the humanoid robot track [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise this week. On the supply side, the resources of cobalt intermediates were relatively concentrated, and mining enterprises still suspended quotations. After the customs data were released on the weekend, the import volume of cobalt intermediates in China in June dropped significantly, further strengthening the market's expectation of raw material shortage. Traders continued to raise their quotations and reported that there were a small number of transactions of mainstream brands at around 12.5 - 12.6 US dollars per pound. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories reported that the current cost inversion was too serious. If they could not purchase low - cost cobalt intermediates, they would choose to purchase other cobalt raw materials for substitution or choose to reduce production or even stop production. Overall, affected by the extension policy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China's cobalt intermediates will still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has upward momentum, but it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of downstream demand by the increase in raw material prices [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review of the lithium - ion battery graphite market, the integration of anode enterprises was accelerating, and the price of the graphitization market was in a stalemate [11]