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国投期货化工日报-20250729
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-29 13:09

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polyolefin: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: Not rated - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, most chemical products' prices are facing various supply - demand situations, and the market trends are complex, with many products expected to move within a certain range, and some are affected by factors such as policies, seasons, and inventory [2][3][5] Industry Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, with supply expected to increase due to device restart, and limited support from supply - demand [2] - Polyolefin futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE demand improves slowly but supply increase is obvious; PP supply is expected to rise while downstream demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices show a small rebound, with weak fundamental drive and a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - late third quarter [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly, with high supply, accumulating inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate. PTA keeps accumulating inventory, and its mid - term processing margin has a repair drive [5] - Ethylene glycol may face a supply shift, with stable downstream demand and low - level port inventory [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices stabilize with raw materials. Short fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are firm in oscillation. Port inventory shows unexpected destocking, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures run at a low level. Domestic demand is weak, and the market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC oscillates weakly. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and short - term prices may follow cost fluctuations, with limited long - term increase [7] - Caustic soda shows a strong trend. Some low - inventory enterprises raise prices, and the price is expected to face pressure in the long term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate narrowly. There is supply pressure in the long term [8] - Glass prices continue to fall. The market may return to reality - based trading, and long - term price increase is difficult without supply contraction [8]