利率周记（7月第4周）：债市再次回调，怎么看？

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the bond market correction in the 4th week of July 2025 and analyzes its causes and future trends [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market correction on July 29 was mainly due to institutional behavior, and future attention should be paid to the decline in borrowing volume and the stabilization of bond fund redemptions [2][7] - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market has not changed, and it is still too early to talk about a bond market reversal [7] Group 4: Characteristics of the Bond Market Correction - Intra - day fluctuations were small, and interest rates continued to rise, different from the rapid decline in the late trading in 2024 [3] - The correction was not directly caused by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, and it was difficult to explain from the macro - capital flow [3] - The adjustment of 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 30Y treasury bonds was the most obvious, with an upward amplitude of about 4bp [3] Group 5: Reasons from the Institutional Behavior Perspective - On July 29, both securities firms and funds were net sellers throughout the day, which was different from the past [4] - Medium - and long - term bond funds faced redemption pressure, and funds continued to flow out slightly [4] - Securities firms were borrowing and selling bonds, mainly borrowing 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 30Y treasury bonds for short - selling on the cash bond side, similar to the situation in the first quarter of this year [4] Group 6: Macro - background Factors - With increasing macro - disturbance factors such as the childcare subsidy policy and waiting for the Politburo meeting and Sino - US negotiations, securities firms may increase borrowing and selling [6] Group 7: Future Market Outlook - The bond market correction was a resonance of trading desks actively increasing borrowing and selling and continuous bond fund redemptions [7] - High - frequency attention should be paid to whether securities firms further increase short - selling through borrowing and whether the bond fund redemption pressure ends completely [7] Group 8: Impact of Insurance Institutions - The reduction of the预定 interest rate by insurance institutions may have a "short - term positive and long - term negative" impact on the bond market [6] - In the short term, increased premium income may lead to more purchases of ultra - long bonds during corrections, but in the long term, the preference for 30Y treasury bonds has declined, and local government bonds are the main allocation bonds [6] Group 9: Potential Scale of Securities Firms' Borrowing and Selling - If securities firms continue to increase borrowing and selling, the net selling scale may reach up to 35 billion yuan under a pessimistic assumption [6]