国投期货农产品日报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★☆ (Yang Ruixia, Agricultural Products Team Leader) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆ (Wu Xiaoming, Chief Analyst) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ (Dong Tiantian, Senior Analyst) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Song Teng, Senior Analyst) [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by Sino-US trade negotiations and weather conditions, and different agricultural products have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - For soybean and soybean meal, the US soybean good rate is high, and the market is in a wait-and-see state, mainly in a volatile trend [3] - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain the idea of buying on dips, and be cautious about the short-term performance of strong oil and weak meal [4] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, take a short-term neutral view [6] - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7] - For live hogs, the futures may have peaked and are likely to fall back in the future, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [8] - For eggs, the far-month contracts are relatively strong, but beware of the adverse effects of the reverse fluctuation of the spot and near-month contracts [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans have significantly reduced positions and pulled back, and the short-term needs to pay attention to weather and policy guidance [2] - The US Midwest weather is good, and there is a possibility of a good harvest this year [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The Sino-US trade negotiation is the focus of the market, and the US soybean good rate is high, with early signs of a good harvest [3] - The time window for weather trading is gradually narrowing, and the market is mainly in a volatile state [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of overseas vegetable oil is stronger than that in China, and the export window of Chinese soybean oil is expected to open [4] - The EU's policy is beneficial to the demand for palm oil, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector shows a pattern of strong oil and weak meal, and the market is in a wait-and-see state due to Sino-US and Sino-Canadian trade negotiations [6] - The demand for rapeseed meal is weak, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is slowly declining [6] Corn - The US corn is growing well, and the domestic corn market is mainly concerned with the phased supply in the circulation link [7] - The Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs continues to fall, and the futures may have peaked and are likely to fall back in the future [8] - It is recommended that the industry hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuate little, and the spot price is mostly stable with some slight declines [9] - The far-month contracts are relatively strong, but beware of the adverse effects of the reverse fluctuation of the spot and near-month contracts [9]