事件点评：债市收益率反转的历史规律

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the target for the 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.9% and 2.2%. With the economic growth rate likely not to decline significantly in the second half of 2025, bond yields are expected to rise due to the revision of economic expectations. Historically, the reasonable level of the 10-year Treasury bond yield has generally been in the range of DR007 + 40 to 70BP. If policies to counter内卷 are effective in the second half of 2025 and inflation normalizes, the DR007 central level is expected to rise above the inflation level, and the reasonable range of the 10-year Treasury bond yield is also expected to increase accordingly [6]. Group 3 - Summary Based on Related Catalogs Law 1: Two Ways for Bond Yields to Reach the Bottom - Historically, there are two forms of bond yields reaching the bottom: V-shaped reversal and W-shaped reversal. For V-shaped reversals, significant policy stimuli lead to a rapid economic upswing, causing bond yields to show a V-shaped reversal, as seen in 2009 and 2020. For W-shaped reversals, bond yields experience a double bottom because the economy stabilizes in an L-shape and market expectations for the economy are uncertain. After the first bottom and rebound, yields usually decline again, even to new lows, such as in Q3 2012 and Q2 2013, Q1 2016 and Q3 2016. In the case of a W-shaped reversal, market congestion is usually low when bond yields are at the first low and high when at the second low. Also, the upward amplitude of a W-shaped reversal is greater than that of a V-shaped reversal, with the upward amplitudes in 2009 and 2020 being around 100BP and 80BP respectively, and those in 2013 and 2016 being around 140BP and 130BP respectively [3]. Law 2: Bond Yield Increases Lag Behind the Stock Market's Upward Trend - Four logics suggest that the stock market's upward trend leads bond yields. Firstly, the stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom-up and more sensitive to micro - entity changes. Secondly, the stock market represents the market's endogenous driving force, and its upward trend may indicate continuous improvement in this force. Thirdly, bond investors have strong long - position stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. Fourthly, the performance evaluation mechanism of bond funds, which is mainly based on relative returns, has made it difficult for bond investors to reduce their duration since 2021. Historically, in 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2020, the stock market rose first, and bond yields increased later [4][5]. Law 3: The Direct Triggering Reasons for Bond Yield Increases Vary - Historically, the logic for bond yield increases is usually economic recovery and rising funds, but by the time investors confirm these, bond yields have often risen significantly. The direct triggering reasons for bond yield increases at inflection points have been different each time, making it difficult to accurately predict yield inflection points. For example, in January 2009, the trigger was credit data; in June 2013, it was the "money shortage"; in August 2016, it was tight funds; and in April 2020, it was the change in epidemic prevention policies [5].