固定收益点评：2025年理财半年报点评及展望，理财的变化与挑战

Report Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the growth of wealth management scale slowed down due to the high base in the same period last year and the weakened income advantage. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, wealth management may face greater challenges, but its ability to handle redemptions has increased [3][7]. Summary by Directory I. Wealth Management Product End: Weakened Income Advantage and Slowed Scale Growth - Affected by the high base in the first half of 2024, the scale of wealth management, money market funds, and bond funds all increased less year-on-year in the first half of 2025. In the first half of 2025, deposits increased by 17.92 trillion yuan, wealth management increased by 0.72 trillion yuan, money market funds increased by 0.62 trillion yuan, and bond funds increased by 0.44 trillion yuan. Among them, deposits increased by 6.47 trillion yuan year-on-year, while wealth management increased 1.0 trillion yuan less year-on-year, money market funds increased 1.29 trillion yuan less year-on-year, and bond funds increased 1.13 trillion yuan less year-on-year [14][15]. - The decline in wealth management income was significantly greater than that of deposits and money market funds, and the weakened income advantage was another important reason for the slowed scale growth in the first half of this year. The average monthly yield of wealth management in the first half of 2025 further dropped to 2.12%, a decrease of 53 bps compared to the end of last year. In the first half of this year, the reduction in the listed deposit interest rate was between 5 bps - 25 bps, and the average seven-day annualized yield of money market funds only decreased by 22 bps [15]. II. Wealth Management Asset End: Reduced Bond Holdings, Increased Deposits and Public Fund Investments - In terms of asset allocation structure, bond investments decreased in the first half of the year, while deposits and public fund investments increased significantly. The proportions of public funds and cash and bank deposits increased the most, with the proportion of public funds rising by 1.3 pct to 4.2%, and the proportion of cash and bank deposits rising by 0.9 pct to 24.80%. The proportion of bonds decreased by 2.3 pct to 55.60%. In terms of scale, cash and bank deposit investments increased by 0.5 trillion yuan, public fund investments increased by 0.45 trillion yuan, and bond investment scale decreased by 0.27 trillion yuan [4]. - In the first half of 2025, wealth management reduced its total bond holdings by 0.27 trillion yuan, mainly reducing credit bonds and certificates of deposit, and increasing interest rate bonds. As of June 2025, wealth management held 18.33 trillion yuan of bonds, including 12.79 trillion yuan of credit bonds, 0.99 trillion yuan of interest rate bonds, and 4.55 trillion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit. In terms of increments, in the first half of 2025, bond holdings decreased by 0.27 trillion yuan, among which interest rate bonds increased by 0.24 trillion yuan, credit bonds decreased by 0.42 trillion yuan, and certificates of deposit decreased by 0.08 trillion yuan [5][25]. III. Wealth Management Operation Mode: Continued Contraction of Cash - Type Products and Significant Growth of Other Open - Ended Products - The proportion of closed - end products and cash management products decreased, while the scale and proportion of other open - ended products increased. In the first half of the year, the scale of closed - end products increased by 0.1 trillion yuan to 5.85 trillion yuan, the scale of cash management products decreased by 0.9 trillion yuan to 6.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of other open - ended products increased by 1.52 trillion yuan to 18.42 trillion yuan. The proportions of closed - end products and cash management products decreased by 0.13% and 3.51% respectively, and the proportion of other open - ended products rose from 56.43% at the end of 2024 to 60.06% in June 2025 [6][31]. - In terms of the term of closed - end products, the term of newly issued closed - end products in the first half of 2025 was extended. As of the end of June 2025, the proportion of the outstanding scale of closed - end products with a term of more than one year in all closed - end products was 72.86%, an increase of 5.71 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year and an increase of 4.99 percentage points compared to the same period last year [31]. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - Wealth management yields may decline further. With the decline in the yields of underlying asset bonds and the gradual release of retained earnings, wealth management yields may decline trend - wise. Coupled with the maturity of previously allocated relatively high - yield assets, the downward pressure on wealth management yields will be more obvious [7][36]. - There may be some pressure on the expansion of wealth management scale. As the advantage of wealth management product yields over deposits weakens, especially for products like cash management products that invest more in short - term assets, the advantage over deposits is limited, which may lead to a slowdown in the growth rate of wealth management scale [7][36]. - The net value fluctuations of wealth management may increase, but the ability to handle redemptions has increased. Although the means of smoothing the valuation of wealth management products are restricted, and as the proportion of open - ended products in the wealth management product structure rises, the exposure level of products to fluctuations has further increased, the net value fluctuations of wealth management may increase. However, the significant increase in deposit investment scale in the wealth management asset allocation structure has enhanced the liquidity management ability of wealth management, giving it a strong ability to handle redemptions [7][36]. - High - interest assets are becoming scarcer, and wealth management may rely more on trading and entrusted investments to obtain returns. From the wealth management investments in the first half of 2025, the proportion of bond investments decreased, and among bonds, interest rate bonds were mainly increased while credit bonds were reduced. Against the background of an asset shortage, the supply of high - coupon assets is decreasing, and there are certain challenges in diversified investments in the future. Wealth management may rely more on interest rate trading and entrusting public fund investments to obtain higher returns [8][37].