Changjiang Securities·2025-07-29 15:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [11]. Core Insights - The banking sector has completed its 2024 dividend distribution, with a shift towards 2025 where the expected dividend yield for quality city commercial banks is projected to rise to approximately 4.5% to 5.0% [2][6]. - After recent market adjustments, leading city commercial banks such as Chengdu Bank and Jiangsu Bank have seen their expected dividend yields rebound to 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, making them attractive for investment [7]. - The average static dividend yield for state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.02%, which still offers a 230 basis points (BP) spread over the 10-year government bond yield [7][20]. Summary by Sections Dividend Distribution - As of July 28, 2024, all 42 listed banks in A-shares have completed their dividend distributions for the year [6]. - For 2025, the expected average dividend yields for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks are projected at 4.04%, 4.27%, 4.05%, and 3.94%, respectively [6]. Market Dynamics - Recent market sentiment has shifted, leading to a significant recovery in risk appetite, which has resulted in capital outflows and price adjustments in the banking sector [7]. - The stable performance of banks is supported by recent interim reports from Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Qilu Bank, and Changshu Bank, all of which exceeded expectations [7]. Mid-term Dividend Planning - In 2024, 24 listed banks are expected to implement mid-term dividends, with several banks like China Merchants Bank, Changshu Bank, and Su Nong Bank announcing their first mid-term dividends [8]. - The timing of mid-term dividends is expected to be similar to the previous year, influencing the allocation rhythm within the sector [8]. Dividend Ratios - The overall dividend ratio for banks in 2024 is expected to increase compared to the previous year, with limited room for further increases in 2025 [9]. - Attention is drawn to banks like Hangzhou Bank and Qilu Bank, which may have incentives to raise their dividend ratios post-conversion of convertible bonds [9]. Valuation Recovery - The report expresses optimism regarding the valuation recovery of banking stocks, particularly favoring quality city commercial banks such as Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, Chengdu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qingdao Bank [10]. - The report highlights that various capital sources, including insurance and state-owned capital, have been increasing their holdings in banking stocks, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [27].