五矿期货能源化工日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4 per barrel, suggesting short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips and left - hand side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand side shows a decline in MTO profits, and the market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, facing callback pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the domestic production continues to decline, and the cost - side support is gradually strengthening. The demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [5]. - For rubber, after a significant correction, NR and RU are slightly fluctuating. The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [7]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Although it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector, there is a risk of a significant decline when the sentiment fades [9]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support, with different views from bulls and bears [11][13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, macro - expectations will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July [16]. - For PX, the load remains high, and the downstream PTA maintenance season is over. With low inventory and improved polyester and terminal operations, there is a short - term opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are starting, and the downstream production has recovered but remains at a low level. The port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the valuation may decline in the short term although it is currently strong due to anti - involution sentiment [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.27, or 3.39%, to $69.25; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.36, or 3.35%, to $72.76; INE main crude oil futures rose 4 yuan, or 0.76%, to 531 yuan [2]. - Inventory Data: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 6.87 million barrels, a 17.29% month - on - month decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 2.45 million barrels, an 11.98% month - on - month increase [2]. Methanol - Market Performance: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - Fundamentals: The upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the demand side shows a decline in MTO profits and a continuation of the off - season for traditional demand [3]. Urea - Market Performance: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1744 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 16 [5]. - Fundamentals: Domestic production continues to decline, the cost - side support is strengthening, the demand for compound fertilizers is slowly recovering, and exports are an important demand increment [5]. Rubber - Market Performance: NR and RU slightly fluctuated after a significant correction [7]. - Supply Concerns: The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns [7]. PVC - Market Performance: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5020 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 172 (- 103) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 124 (+ 4) yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The cost side is stable, the overall production rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease; the downstream production rate is 41.9%, and the factory inventory is 35.7 (- 1) tons, while the social inventory is 68.3 (+ 2.6) tons [9]. Styrene - Market Performance: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [11]. - Fundamentals: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period. The supply side shows an increase in production, and the demand side shows an increase in the overall operating rate of three S products [11][13]. Polyethylene - Market Performance: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7385 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan weakening [15]. - Fundamentals: The upstream production rate is 80.31%, a 0.05% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.64 tons to 50.29 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 5.98 tons. The downstream average production rate is 38.42%, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. Polypropylene - Market Performance: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7165 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan weakening [16]. - Fundamentals: The upstream production rate is 78.44%, a 1.11% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.48 tons to 58.06 tons, the trader inventory increased by 1.43 tons to 16.66 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.41 tons to 6.72 tons. The downstream average production rate is 48.45%, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [16]. PX - Market Performance: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6942 yuan, the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 857 dollars, the basis was 122 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+ 18) yuan [18]. - Fundamentals: The Chinese load is 79.9%, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the Asian load is 72.9%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease. There are changes in domestic and overseas device operations, and the PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged [18]. PTA - Market Performance: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, the East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4830 yuan, the basis was - 5 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 6 (+ 4) yuan [20]. - Fundamentals: The PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 18 was 218.9 tons, a 1.7 - ton increase [20]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was 62 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 25 (+ 3) yuan [21]. - Fundamentals: The supply - side production rate is 68.4%, a 2.2% month - on - month increase. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The port inventory is 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease [21].