五矿期货黑色建材日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Market Analysis: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price Data: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - Market Analysis: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - Price Data: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - Market Analysis: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Price and Inventory Data: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - Market Analysis: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - Soda Ash - Price and Inventory Data: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - Market Analysis: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].