Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - Market: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - Market: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - Market: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - Price: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - Market: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - Inventory: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - Market: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - Inventory: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - Price: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - Market: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - Market: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - Market: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250730
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-30 00:53