Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250730
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-07-30 00:58