金信期货日刊-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass futures showed a V-shaped trend today. The market has significant differences in the future direction of glass futures. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillatory and bullish pattern. Investors need to closely monitor changes in supply - demand relationships, policy trends, and capital flows [3][4] - A-share market: After the three major A-share indices opened lower today, they declined and then closed with a small positive line. With the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] - Gold: Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold, the long - term outlook remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] - Iron ore: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15][16] - Palm oil: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures - Market performance: Glass futures showed a V - shaped trend today. The morning session declined due to market sentiment and fundamental factors, and rebounded in the afternoon [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass is at a relatively high level, and supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still sluggish, and downstream demand for glass has not improved significantly. Although there is some speculative demand, it is difficult to form effective support [3] - Outlook: If there are favorable policies for the real - estate market or measures for glass industry capacity regulation, it may change the current supply - demand expectations and push up glass futures prices. If demand remains weak and the high - inventory problem cannot be solved, the upward space of glass futures will be limited, or it may continue to decline [4] - Technical analysis: The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs. Factory inventories are gradually decreasing, but the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong. Fundamentals have not changed significantly. Recently, the trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Today, it was consolidating at a low level, and investors should operate cautiously and wait for stabilization [20][21] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower today, declined, and then closed with a small positive line [8] - News influence: The implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per person, stimulates consumption. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] 3.3 Gold - Market influence: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in gold [12] - Technical analysis: The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] 3.4 Iron Ore - Market environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16] - Technical analysis: It rebounded slightly today. Investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15] 3.5 Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [24] - Negative factors: Weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum of the market [24]