中泰期货晨会纪要-20250730

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - Stock Index Futures: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - Steel and Minerals: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - Ferroalloys: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - Shanghai Zinc: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - Industrial Silicon: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - Polysilicon: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - Sugar: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - Eggs: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - Apples: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - Corn: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - Red Dates: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - Pigs: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - Plastics: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - Rubber: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - Methanol: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - Asphalt: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - Polyester Industry Chain: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - Paper Pulp: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - Logs: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - Urea: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]