豆粕：近期偏弱，8月下旬后有修复契机

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that soybean meal should be mainly considered from an interval oscillation perspective. Upward breakthrough requires intensified trade wars and South American planting problems, while downward breakthrough needs domestic consumption slump and further supply relaxation. Recently, soybean meal may remain weak due to large inventories and sufficient external market supply. The opportunity for price increase may come from the National Day stocking in September, the domestic soybean de - stocking window, and the improvement of crushing margins from South American planting transactions. Additionally, the soybean oil segment may be relatively stronger due to the year - end palm oil de - stocking expectation and the B50 policy expectation [1][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak in mid - August due to good提货 - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, about 230,000 tons higher than last year, and oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons, about 300,000 tons lower than last year. Feed enterprise inventory days were 8.19 days, 0.76 days higher than last year. Overall, the current domestic protein inventory is similar to last year [3]. - From September 2024 to August 2025, 107.83 million tons of soybeans were purchased, compared with 111.89 million tons in the same period last year. Considering the port soybean inventory difference in October 2024, the annual supply actually decreased by about 2 million tons. As of July 22, 2025, 6.2 million tons were purchased for September 2025 and 1.06 million tons for October. With similar supply and increased consumption, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak around mid - August [4]. 2. The supply pressure of external market soybeans from August to January of the following year is slightly greater than last year, and the expected output growth rate of South American new crops slows down - For US soybeans, a good harvest is likely this year, but it's difficult to achieve a maximum trend yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. Assuming the yield is adjusted down to 51.5 - 52 bushels per acre, the 2025/26 output may be reduced by about 1 - 2 million tons, and the new - crop export volume is expected to decline by 3 - 6 million tons compared with last year [6]. - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean output in 2025 is 169 million tons, and the export volume is expected to be 102 million tons. The shipping volume from August to January is estimated to be 23 - 29 million tons, about 7 million tons higher than last year. The real - world supply pressure from September to January in the external market is higher than last year, and the overall output growth of South American soybeans is expected to be 5 - 6 million tons [6][8]. 3. The import cost of soybeans is expected to maintain an interval oscillation similar to last year - As of July 29, 2025, the price of the November US soybean contract was 1009 cents per bushel, and the planting cost was around 1190 cents per bushel. The US soybean and global soybean new and old crop stock - to - use ratios are slightly better than last year, and the US soybean has support at 955 cents per bushel [10]. - The FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans is about 180 cents per bushel, stronger than last year. If there are results regarding US soybean purchases later, the Brazilian premium may drop by 60 - 70 cents per bushel. The bottom - end interval of external market soybean import costs may remain at around 3600 yuan per ton, with limited upward space [10]. - The domestic soybean spot crushing margin is at the break - even line, as are the September and November contract crushing margins for soybean meal and soybean oil. If domestic downstream soybean meal consumption can maintain a high level, it may skip the inventory pressure in August and directly trade the South American sowing period and the domestic soybean de - stocking period from September to November [11].