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铅锌日评:区间整理-20250730
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:14

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move within a range [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak fundamental situation. Considering the repeated "anti - involution" sentiment in the macro - aspect, short - term zinc prices are expected to move within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot is 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai lead basis is - 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead backwardation is - 31.80 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract is 47,978 lots, a decrease of 33.85%; the open interest is 64,534 lots, a decrease of 8.52% [1]. - The LME lead inventory is 270,350 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 60,932 tons, unchanged [1]. - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,020 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.12%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.37, a decrease of 0.21% [1]. Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment failure and maintenance last week, with a slight decline in production [1]. - The price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and recyclers have limited supplies. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost inversions, but the secondary lead market is gradually recovering [1]. - As the end of July approaches, the market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspend purchases for monthly inventory checks this week [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract is 22,655 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai zinc basis is - 155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 zinc backwardation is - 3.92 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.97 dollars/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract is 127,217 lots, a decrease of 34.12%; the open interest is 117,616 lots, a decrease of 5.50% [1]. - The LME zinc inventory is 112,150 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 15,307 tons, an increase of 11.19% [1]. - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,814.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.32%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.05, a decrease of 0.28% [1]. Fundamentals - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising in August due to abundant raw materials, weakening cost support and improving smelter profits and production enthusiasm [1]. - Zinc prices strengthened during the week, and downstream off - season purchases decreased significantly [1]. Weather Impact - Since July 23, North China has experienced heavy rainfall. Some reservoirs are at high water levels, and there are risks in river embankments in some areas. The raw material transportation of secondary lead smelters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region is affected, but production is stable. The production and transportation of galvanizing plants in Tianjin, Handan, Tangshan, and Qian'an are not affected for now [1].