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国新国证期货早报-20250730
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:38

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].