Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Upward [2] - Glass: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2][4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2][4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Declining [4] - Gold: Oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Retracement [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: On the sidelines [11] - MEG: On the sidelines [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased retracement after the release of short-term sentiment, and the expectation of production cuts reversing the situation again [2] - The macroeconomic situation is neutrally bullish, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The fundamentals of iron ore, coking coal and coke, and rebar are relatively strong in the short term, but risks of a phased retracement should be watched out for [2] - The market sentiment towards stock index futures/options is weakening, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [4] - The fundamentals of pulp are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to retrace [6] - The prices of logs are expected to be stable in the short term, with a slight increase in the cost side [6] - The prices of oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6] - The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price may decline month-on-month [8] - The price of natural rubber is expected to remain firm, and attention should be paid to the situation in Southeast Asia and the production and sales of tires [11] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are in different situations, and short-term prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 918,000 tons, with subsequent supply remaining ample; arrivals have declined in the past two weeks, but shipments are expected to increase seasonally, and arrivals are expected to bottom out and rebound; the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable in the short term, and one can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - Coking coal and coke: The exchange has adjusted the trading limits for coking coal, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented; the fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively strong, but risks of a phased retracement should be watched out for [2] - Rebar: In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, the profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, and the total inventory pressure of steel is not obvious; the short-term sentiment of the steel industry has improved, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300 Index closed up 0.39%, the SSE 50 Index closed up 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.65%; funds flowed into the biotechnology and communication equipment sectors, and out of the insurance and banking sectors; it is recommended to reduce long positions on stock index futures [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has increased by 4 bps, and the central bank has conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases; the short-term logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [4] Light Industry Products - Pulp: The spot market prices of pulp are diverging, the cost price has declined, and the demand is in the off-season, so prices are expected to retrace [6] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand from processing plants has increased, so prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined and inventories have increased, but industrial demand may bring potential positive factors; the inventory of domestic oils and fats is increasing, and demand is picking up, so prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The supply side in China is under significant pressure, and demand is weak, but the weather in US soybean-producing areas may cause price fluctuations, so prices are expected to oscillate [6] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and the average settlement price of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly; the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined, and prices are expected to decline month-on-month [8] Soft Commodities - Natural rubber: The supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, and raw material prices are firm; the demand for tires has shown a differentiated trend, and inventory has declined slightly, so prices are expected to remain firm [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: The supply and demand of these products are in different situations, and short-term prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [11]
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-7-30)-20250730
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:38