国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250730

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated July 30, 2025, covering commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation due to sectoral market resonance [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation driven by sectoral sentiment resonance [2][9] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized [2][13][14] - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with an oscillatory pattern as daily consumption recovers [2][18] - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][22] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.53%. The open interest of I2509 decreased by 7,237 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [4] - News: On July 28, local time, China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [4] - Trend Intensity: 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,347 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 1.98%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,503 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton or 2.01%. Spot prices in various regions increased. Output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][7] - News: From July 24th steel union weekly data, production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased. On July 24th, relevant departments issued a notice on soliciting opinions on the price law amendment draft [7][8] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also rose. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed different changes [9] - News: On July 29th, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined [10][11] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14] - Price and Position: Northern port coking coal quotes and relevant price indices were provided. On July 29th, from the top 20 members' position in DCE, long and short positions of coking coal and coke contracts decreased [14][16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Steam Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The ZC2508 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [19] - Fundamentals: Southern port foreign trade steam coal quotes and domestic production area quotes were provided. On July 29th, from the top 20 members' position in ZCE, long and short positions of the ZC2508 contract did not change [20] - Trend Intensity: 0 [21] Logs - Fundamentals: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained relatively stable or had small changes [23] - News: On July 28, local time, China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [25] - Trend Intensity: 1 [25]