Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and go short on PXN when it rallies. Due to the restart of a 210,000 - tonne unit and the shutdown of a 400,000 - tonne unit, supply decreases marginally. The 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduces its load, leading to a marginal decline in demand. With a significant strengthening of the cost side, short PXN on rallies [7]. - PTA: Focus on going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis remains weak at - 5 yuan/ton, and basis reverse arbitrage operations are still maintained. As the monthly spread approaches parity and considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August, pay attention to the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage. Also, focus on the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuations [7][8]. - MEG: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. With continuous decline in port inventories and some buying in the basis in late August, but considering the delivery pressure on the 09 contract, the monthly spread is always weak, making the ethylene glycol trend weak. Also, pay attention to the short ethylene glycol and long L arbitrage. In terms of supply, it is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide units are expected to switch to ethylene glycol production in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The strengthening of crude oil prices is the key driving factor, influenced by the optimistic sentiment towards China - US trade negotiations and the expectation of a decrease in US crude oil inventories. A 210,000 - tonne PX production line of Idemitsu Kosan restarted on July 28, and a 400,000 - tonne unit shut down. On July 29, there were bids and offers for September and October deliveries in the Asian PX market, but no transactions were concluded [2][5]. - PTA: A 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [5]. - MEG: From July 28 to August 3, the planned arrival volume at major ports is about 1.56 million tons. Pay attention to the impact of weather factors on vessel entry efficiency during the week [6]. - Polyester: A 500,000 - tonne polyester device in Wuxi plans to restart tomorrow, and a 300,000 - tonne device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since July 28 for about 15 - 20 days. A 200,000 - tonne device in Shaoxing started maintenance on July 28 for about a month. A 30,000 - tonne low - melting - point staple fiber device in Xiamen has been shut down for maintenance today for a month. On July 29, the sales of direct - spun staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% [6][7]. Price and Spread Data | Variety | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Monthly Spread Yesterday's Closing Price | Monthly Spread Change | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday's Price | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6942 | 6890 | 0.75% | 108 | 18 | 857.33 | 6 | 292.5 | 12.96 | | PTA | 4838 | 26 | 0.54% | 6 | 4 | 4830 | - 15 | 192.67 | - 5.64 | | MEG | 4467 | 31 | 0.70% | - 25 | 3 | 4518 | 19 | - | - | | PF | 6500 | 18 | 0.28% | - 32 | - 2 | - | - | 84.81 | - 30.82 | | SC | 515 | 9.1 | 1.80% | 6.6 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].
对二甲苯:成本端大幅上涨,月差滚动正套PTA:成本支撑,月差正套MEG:关注台风天气对到港影响
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:33