宝城期货煤焦早报-20250730

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate strongly in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with coking coal driven by improved fundamental expectations and coke supported by the fourth price increase and cost from coking coal [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Coking Coal (JM2509): Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the improved fundamental expectations [1] - Coke (J2509): Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the fourth price increase [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Coking Coal (JM): - Spot price: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port is 1200.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50% [5] - Driving factors: "Anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" policies, but the actual impact needs verification. After capacity optimization and upgrading, the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve, and the futures return to a strong trend after a short - term correction [5] - Coke (J): - Futures performance: On the night session of July 29, after two days of correction, the market became optimistic again, and the main contract rose by more than 6% [6] - Spot price: The fourth price increase was implemented on July 29, and the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port rose to 1420 yuan/ton [6] - Supply: As of July 25, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons [6] - Profit: The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent sample coking plants this week was - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons but 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year [6] - Overall situation: The fundamental pressure of coke is not large, and the medium - and long - term improvement expectation of coking coal provides cost support, so the futures strengthen again after a short - term correction [6]