Report's Overall Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Bullish: PX, methanol [25][41] - Cautiously Bullish: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, urea, propylene [1][2] - Bearish: Asphalt [47] Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Geopolitical and macro factors bring short - term positive effects, but there is downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term due to supply - side factors [3][5] - LPG: Cost - side oil prices stabilize, and the fundamental situation improves, leading to a short - term upward trend [7][9] - L: Market risk preference increases, but long - term high production restricts the rebound space [11][13] - PP: Market sentiment improves, but the fundamental situation is still under pressure [15][17] - PVC: Market risk preference rises, but the weak fundamental situation limits the rebound [20][22] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are still positive factors under the policy [24][25] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but there are short - term positive factors from policies [27][28] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides support [29][30] - Glass: The market is affected by macro policies, and the price fluctuates widely at a high level [32][34] - Soda Ash: It is affected by the sentiment of the industrial chain and fluctuates in a wide range [35][36] - Caustic Soda: Supply and demand fundamentals weaken, and the price fluctuates widely at a high level [37][39] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the market sentiment turns bearish [40][41] - Urea: Domestic supply is relatively loose, but exports are relatively good, and the price fluctuates in a range [43][44] - Asphalt: Raw materials are sufficient, and demand in the north decreases, so the price is under pressure [46][47] - Propylene: Supply pressure is prominent, and the market is cautiously bearish [48][50] Summaries Based on Different Product Categories Crude Oil - Market Performance: International oil prices strengthened overnight, with WTI rising 3.75%, Brent rising 3.40%, and SC rising 1.82% [4] - Basic Logic: Macro and geopolitical factors are positive, but OPEC+ production increases bring supply - side pressure. Demand in some regions shows a downward trend, and inventory data shows mixed results [5] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, supply may be excessive, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, consider shorting the 10 - contract and buying call options for protection. Focus on the range of [520 - 535] yuan per barrel for SC [6] LPG - Market Performance: On July 29, the PG main contract closed at 4020 yuan per ton, up 0.58% [8] - Basic Logic: Cost - side oil prices stabilize, downstream chemical demand recovers, and the basis is at a high level [9] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream oil supply may exceed demand. In the short - term, sell put options. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] yuan per ton [10] L - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the position decreased slightly [12] - Basic Logic: Crude oil prices rise, and social inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. Policy changes and raw material replenishment need attention [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions, and industries can choose to sell for hedging. Focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] yuan per ton [13] PP - Market Performance: The price of the main contract decreased, and the position decreased significantly [16] - Basic Logic: Trade talks end, cost - side factors are strong, but the fundamental situation is still under pressure [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7300] yuan per ton [17] PVC - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the position decreased [21] - Basic Logic: Market risk preference rises, but the weak fundamental situation limits the rebound [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce long positions. Focus on the range of [5200 - 5400] yuan per ton [22] PX - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis showed certain changes [24] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory is high but decreasing, and there are positive factors under the policy [25] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of [6940 - 7040] yuan per ton [26] PTA - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis changed [27] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak, but there are short - term positive factors from policies [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [4830 - 4900] yuan per ton [28] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis decreased [29] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides support, but terminal demand is in the off - season [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for low - buying opportunities. Focus on the range of [4450 - 4510] yuan per ton [31] Glass - Market Performance: Spot market quotations loosened, and the price showed a wide - range shock [33] - Basic Logic: Macro policies boost the market, and the fundamental situation improves, with inventory decreasing [34] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of [1180 - 1260] yuan per ton [34] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis weakened [35] - Basic Logic: Affected by policies, the industrial sentiment is boosted, but the supply is excessive and the downstream support is general [36] - Strategy Recommendation: Track macro sentiment and technical operations. Focus on the range of [1300 - 1370] yuan per ton [2] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis weakened [38] - Basic Logic: Supply tends to be saturated, demand is weak, and the price fluctuates widely at a high level [39] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of [2610 - 2680] yuan per ton [39] Methanol - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis decreased [40] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is relatively good, but the market sentiment turns bearish [41] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [2420 - 2470] yuan per ton [42] Urea - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the basis decreased [43] - Basic Logic: Production capacity utilization is high, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good, and cost support exists [44] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1775] yuan per ton [45] Asphalt - Market Performance: The price of the main contract increased, and the profit decreased [46] - Basic Logic: Cost - side oil prices are under pressure, supply is sufficient, and demand in the north decreases [47] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short. Focus on the range of [3600 - 3700] yuan per ton [47] Propylene - Market Performance: The price of the main contract decreased, and the position decreased [49] - Basic Logic: Supply is under pressure, and cost support weakens [49] - Strategy Recommendation: Unwind long positions, and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or shorting the PP processing margin. Focus on the range of [6500 - 6700] yuan per ton [50]
中辉期货原油日报-20250730
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:48