中辉有色观点-20250730
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:43
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Adjustment for long - term strategic allocation due to potential dollar weakness, monetary policy easing, and continued gold purchases by countries, despite short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and trade negotiations [1] - Silver: Follow gold and copper adjustments, with long - term upward trend intact due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus, short - term adjustment to focus on support around 9050 [1] - Copper: Short - term struggle at the 79,000 psychological level, recommend dip - buying, long - term bullish due to global copper mine tightness [1][7] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see due to uncertain sentiment, long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][10] - Lead: Price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: Price rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 in Myanmar, weak supply - demand, and inventory accumulation [1] - Aluminum: Price rebound is under pressure due to high - level imports of bauxite and inventory accumulation in the off - season [1][12] - Nickel: Price rebound is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][13] - Industrial Silicon: Likely to remain at a high level despite supply increase and demand drag [1] - Polysilicon: Likely to remain at a high level with strong cost support but limited spot trading [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation with supply - side risks, focus on 69,000 support [1][15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - 行情回顾: Gold and silver prices oscillated at high levels due to the uncertain cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and weak US data [2] - 基本逻辑: Short - term tariff risks receded, but long - term gold bullish logic remains due to Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance acceleration, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [3] - 策略推荐: Focus on support around 760 for gold and 9100 for silver, maintain long - term views [4] Copper - 行情回顾: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, back to the 79,000 level [6] - 产业逻辑: Tight copper concentrate supply, increasing electrolytic copper production, weakening rod - making开工率, and potential impact of US tariff policies on exports [6] - 策略推荐: Short - term dip - buying on copper, long - term bullish, focus on Shanghai copper range [78,000, 80,000] and London copper range [9700, 9900] [7] Zinc - 行情回顾: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and oscillated narrowly [9] - 产业逻辑: Abundant zinc concentrate supply in 2025, increasing refined zinc production, weak demand in the off - season [9] - 策略推荐: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, focus on Shanghai zinc range [22,400, 22,800] and London zinc range [2650, 2850] [10] Aluminum - 行情回顾: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina prices rebounded [11] - 产业逻辑: High - level aluminum ingot and bar inventory in the off - season, weakening downstream开工率, and abundant alumina supply [12] - 策略推荐: Short - term short - selling on aluminum rallies, focus on the range [20,000, 20,800] [12] Nickel - 行情回顾: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel prices rebounded slightly [13] - 产业逻辑: Weak nickel supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and over - supply in the stainless steel market during the off - season [13] - 策略推荐: Short - selling on nickel and stainless steel rallies, focus on the nickel range [120,000, 123,000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - 行情回顾: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced positions with a 6% decline [14] - 产业逻辑: Inventory accumulation, production increase despite some corporate cut - offs, and potential impact of mining license risks [15] - 策略推荐: Wait - and - see, focus on the 69,000 support level [15]