豆粕周报：主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250730

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided. The ratings are given on a per-variety basis, including "Big range shock" for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, "Cautious about chasing long" for palm oil, "Cautious short" for cotton and red dates, and "Cautious long" for live pigs [1]. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of six agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the supply and demand fundamentals, policy factors, and market sentiment of each product [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The climate center has a neutral outlook, and the soybean planting weather in the US is generally favorable. In China, the soybean and soybean meal inventories are in the accumulation phase, which is expected to last until the end of September, with the accumulation rate in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino-US trade tariff is the key cost support for soybean meal. The price of domestic soybean meal rebounded technically after a continuous decline, and the market is waiting for new progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [1]. - Investment Suggestion: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the results of this week's Sino-US trade negotiations. The main contract range is [2960, 3010] [1]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but the soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is relatively dry. In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills are decreasing month-on-month, but still remain at a relatively high level year-on-year. From July to September, the import of rapeseed decreased significantly year-on-year, coupled with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the price of rapeseed meal. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts upward pressure on the price of rapeseed meal. In the spot market, the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has led to a decrease in the addition of rapeseed meal in feed, which is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - Investment Suggestion: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the improvement of Sino-Canadian relations and the subsequent progress between China and Australia. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The USDA's July supply and demand report lowered the global palm oil ending stocks for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% month-on-month in June, which is positive for market sentiment. The Indonesian government said it has sufficient funds to achieve the B40 target this year and complete the research and testing work for B50, dispelling previous market doubts and driving up the international palm oil price. Malaysia increased the export tariff for August, which is equivalent to increasing the import cost of domestic palm oil. After a series of positive factors, the market lacks further positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil is expected to return to the supply and demand fundamentals in July. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July [1]. - Investment Suggestion: Be cautious about chasing long. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes. Pay attention to the domestic palm oil purchase orders in the past three months. The main contract range is [8800, 9100] [1]. Cotton - Market Situation: In the US, the drought in the western cotton-growing areas has slightly worsened the soil moisture, but the growth of new cotton is still good. The latest good-to-excellent rate has slightly declined but still leads the same period last year. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have both increased, and the guaranteed output has shifted upwards. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment momentum of downstream finished products has slowed down significantly in the latest week. In terms of demand, the orders of textile enterprises have reached a new low in the past five years during the off-season, and the difference in the operating rates of the two factories has gradually widened. There is a need to be vigilant about the negative feedback of the weakening marginal demand on the inventory reduction support logic [1]. - Investment Suggestion: Be cautious about shorting. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high levels and the reverse spread opportunity between the 11th and 1st contracts. Be vigilant about the risk of abnormal fluctuations before the results of the Sino-US trade negotiations are released this week. The main contract range is [13750, 14000] [1]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The growth of new jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in this year's production due to the "alternate bearing" phenomenon, but the actual second and third crop fruit-setting situations in the producing areas have not shown obvious signs of production reduction. Recently, many institutions have gone to Xinjiang for further investigations. The high inventory situation persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. In terms of industry news, only three enterprises are currently implementing the floor purchase orders of some enterprises in the statement of the First Division, and it is difficult to promote it widely under the self-discipline statement [1]. - Investment Suggestion: Be cautious about shorting. It is recommended to short at high levels cautiously. Pay attention to industry policies. The main contract range is [10150, 10950] [1]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: In the short term, the slowdown in the live pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure on栏 and reluctance to sell of farmers support the price bottom. Driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the live pig market has shown significant fluctuations. However, considering that the weight reduction is not complete, there is still a subsequent supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the overcapacity in the medium and long term remains unchanged. There is a need to be vigilant about the risk of selling off due to the previous second-round fattening [1]. - Investment Suggestion: For the 09 contract, be vigilant about the risk of further correction as the current basis level is still relatively low and the spot price is slowing down in following the futures price. The 01 contract is relatively strong due to the earlier delivery time compared to previous years. For the far-month contracts, based on the optimistic expectation of the industry's anti-involution, consider going long at low levels or adopting a cross-year reverse spread strategy [1].