Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each variety: - Thread Steel: Hold [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: Hold [1] - Iron Ore: Reduce Short Positions [1] - Coke: Hold [1] - Coking Coal: Hold [1] - Silicomanganese: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] Core Views - Steel: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. For thread steel, production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, and total inventory has decreased slightly, with supply and demand relatively balanced. For hot rolled coil, production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][3][4]. - Iron Ore: Fundamentally, molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The market sentiment has turned cautious after the coking coal position limit, and attention should be paid to policy announcements [1][6]. - Coke: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable. Market sentiment may fluctuate due to policy expectations for later meetings [1][8][10]. - Coking Coal: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited. There is still a possibility of capital - game market conditions, and market sentiment may fluctuate due to later meetings and policy expectations [1][12][14]. - Ferroalloys: For silicomanganese, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. For ferrosilicon, last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][16][18]. Summary by Variety Thread Steel - Price Information: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3353, 3399, and 3294 respectively, with changes of 29, 88, and 20. Spot prices in different regions (Tangshan, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3150 to 3480, with price changes from - 20 to 60. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - Fundamentals: Production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, and molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level [1][4]. - Operation Suggestion: The short - term market has entered high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to whether the end - of - month important meeting reiterates anti - involution policies, with a price range of [3340, 3400] [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - Price Information: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3507, 3500, and 3503 respectively, with changes of 98, 81, and 106. Spot prices in different regions (Tianjin, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3420 to 3590, with price changes from 40 to 70. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - Fundamentals: Production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][4]. - Operation Suggestion: The market is currently trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The production - restriction news has boosted market expectations again, and the market has entered a high - level operation. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to the meeting results, with a price range of [3500, 3580] [1][5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: The report does not provide detailed price information but gives a price range of [790, 830] [1]. - Fundamentals: Molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased [1][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Reduce short positions and pay attention to policy announcements [1][7]. Coke - Price Information: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1690.5, 1746.5, and 1633.0 respectively, with price changes of 40.0, 69.5, and 24.5. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Rizhao, etc.) range from 1180 to 1420, with price changes from - 10 to 50. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][9]. - Fundamentals: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable [1][10]. - Operation Suggestion: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1640, 1730] [1][11]. Coking Coal - Price Information: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1214.5, 1241.0, and 1120.5 respectively, with price changes of 34.5, 56.5, and 20.0. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Gujiao, etc.) range from 1150 to 1480, with price changes from - 93 to 0. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][13]. - Fundamentals: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited [1][14]. - Operation Suggestion: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1120, 1174.5] [1][15]. Silicomanganese - Price Information: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6286, 6306, and 6212 respectively, with price changes of 184, 176, and 184. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5800 to 5850, with price changes from 100 to 150. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices [1][18]. - Operation Suggestion: Market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal, with an expected price range of [6070, 6356] [1][19]. Ferrosilicon - Price Information: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6216, 6230, and 6110 respectively, with price changes of 268, 240, and 270. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5600 to 5650, with price changes from 0 to 50. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - Fundamentals: Last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][18]. - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure, with a price range of [5950, 6270] [1][19].
中辉期货热卷早报-20250730
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:43