生猪：弱现实强预期，趋势反套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation is weak while the future expectation is strong, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - Futures Prices: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,150 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton), and the price of the生猪2511 contract is 14,125 yuan/ton (down 125 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Market Logic - Currently in the consumption off - season, with limited downstream digestion ability. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, causing the spot price to drop rapidly. Market expectations of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated sales, resulting in the continued weakness of the spot market. Macro sentiment has strong support for far - end prices, forming a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectation [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - Volume and Position Changes: For the生猪2509 contract, the trading volume is 31,825 lots (down 32,110 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 54,807 lots (down 6,608 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2511 contract, the trading volume is 14,012 lots (down 10,435 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 48,619 lots (down 872 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2601 contract, the trading volume is 14,033 lots (down 14,264 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 42,803 lots (down 537 lots from the previous day) [4]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is 150 yuan/ton, the basis of the生猪2511 contract is - 275 yuan/ton, the basis of the生猪2601 contract is - 30 yuan/ton. The spread between生猪9 - 11 is - 270 yuan/ton (down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between生猪11 - 1 is - 520 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year) [4].