中美会谈取得新进展，煤焦夜盘增仓上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the Sino - US trade talks have made new progress, and the two sides have extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. Due to previous policies falling short of expectations and over - hyped recent expectations, some long - position funds may take early profits. The market focuses on anti - involution in this meeting. If there is more incremental information, the anti - involution hype may continue. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange lowered the trading limit of coking coal on Friday, the coking coal market saw a sharp fall at night, with signs of long - position stampede. Short - term macro uncertainties increase, and the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If long - position investors leave the market on a large scale, coking coal may be weak in the future; if there is a stalemate between long and short positions and the market can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach new highs after the emotional release [4] - In terms of coking coal, the mine - end production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventories are continuously transferred to downstream. Although steel mills' replenishment speed is slower than that of coke enterprises, it has slightly accelerated this week. For coke, the third and fourth rounds of spot price increases are expected to be quickly implemented next week, and the expectation of further price increases remains. Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5] - Based on the recent trends and positions of coking coal, from the 21st to the 22nd, the exit of short - position investors accelerated the market, and from the 23rd to the 25th, long - position investors further pushed up the market. It is possible that the long - position investors who entered the market after the 23rd are new short - term funds and are most likely to be stopped out. Currently, the price has basically returned to the gap area on the 23rd, erasing the gains from last Wednesday to Friday. Recently, the coal - coke market rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly and make further decisions after the outcome of the long - short tug - of war becomes clear [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 86.9% (+0.83), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 62.31% (-0.54) [2] - Demand: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 2.7844 million tons (-606,300 tons), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons (-159,300 tons) [2] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9951 million tons (+84,100 tons), and the inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 8.4121 million tons (+510,200 tons). Port inventory was 2.9234 million tons (-291,600 tons) [2] 3.1.3 Spot Price and Spread - Spot price: Mongolian 5 coking coal was reported at 1,150 yuan/ton (-93 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,120.5 yuan/ton (+20 yuan) [2] - Basis: The basis was +49.5 yuan/ton (-113 yuan), and the September - January spread was -94 yuan/ton (-14.5 yuan) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons (-21,000 tons) [3] 3.2.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 501,200 tons (-54,300 tons) [3] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3998 million tons (+9,900 tons), and port inventory was 1.9813 million tons (-9,800 tons) [3] 3.2.3 Spot Price, Spread and Profit - Spot price: The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,420 yuan/ton (+50 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,633 yuan/ton (+24.5 yuan) [3] - Basis: The basis was -106 yuan/ton (+29.26 yuan), and the September - January spread was -57.5 yuan/ton (-15.5 yuan) [3] - Profit: Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5]