尿素：商品指数反弹，短期震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea has entered a mid - term oscillation pattern. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the second - batch export of urea may support the demand side. In the short term, the commodity index rebounds with oscillations. The daily fluctuations mainly depend on the overall trend of the commodity index under macro - sentiment guidance and the daily spot trading volume [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea's main contract: The closing price was 1,744 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,739 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan), the trading volume was 151,631 lots (down 97,747 lots), the open interest of the 09 contract was 152,980 lots (down 144 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 2,900 tons (unchanged), and the trading value was 5.27502 billion yuan (down 3.42913 billion yuan). The Shandong regional basis was 16 (down 26), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 94 (down 16), the Dongguang - to - futures basis was 16 (down 26), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 26 (down 6) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,495 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Hebei Dongguang was 1,760 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,830 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,760 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) and in Shanxi were 1,650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] 3.1.3 Supply - side Indicators - The operating rate was 83.21% (up 1.04 percentage points), and the daily output was 192,650 tons (up 2,400 tons) [2] 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons (4.10% month - on - month) from the previous week. The inventory decline narrowed. Although domestic urea demand was weak and factory orders and shipments slowed, due to some goods being exported and local downstream purchasing at low prices, the overall factory inventory decreased slightly. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases. With weak trading recently and the second - batch export not yet started, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [2]