Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend judgments based on the fundamentals and market conditions of each commodity [2][9]. - Some commodities are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and policy expectations, showing trends of short - term shock, strength, or weakness [9][11][61]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Cost - end strengthened due to rising crude oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply decreased marginally with a 210,000 - ton restart and a 400,000 - ton device shutdown, and demand decreased marginally as a 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load [5][9]. - PTA: Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. Consider 9 - 1 month - spread positive arbitrage as the inventory accumulation in August weakens. The current PTA processing fee is at a relatively low level, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA processing fee position under high valuation [9][10]. - MEG: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and month - spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is falling, and the import volume is expected to increase in September. Some ethylene oxide devices may be converted to produce ethylene glycol [11]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the difference between the spot and futures prices and the month - spread showed certain changes. The inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of tire companies changed [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term. The prices of futures and spot markets decreased, and the basis and month - spread also changed. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively neutral [16][17][18]. Asphalt - Asphalt is slightly stronger due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the inventory of refineries and social warehouses decreased [19][32]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. The market price fluctuates, and the cost is supported by the rise in crude oil prices. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the third quarter, and the demand support is not strong [33][34]. PP - PP's spot price rose slightly, and the transaction improved. The futures price increased slightly, and the market was mainly in narrow - range adjustment. The downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda should pay attention to the delivery pressure. It is currently in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increase power but strong cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the supply of caustic soda and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [40][41]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure is high, and the demand - side is weak. The price of the living paper market is in a flat consolidation, and attention should be paid to the shipment of paper enterprises and the recovery of downstream demand [44][47][49]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price decreased, and the production and sales of float glass factories weakened. The price of the spot market fluctuated, with some regions falling and some rising [50][51]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. The futures price increased, and the spot price index decreased. The traditional downstream demand is weak, but the phased external procurement of olefins provides support. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and supply factors [54][56]. Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short term as the commodity index rebounds. The futures price increased slightly, and the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and potential export support [59][61]. Styrene - Styrene's profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly used as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase, and attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profit [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price decreased, and the price of the spot market was adjusted in an oscillatory manner. The production of enterprises was relatively stable, and the downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement at low prices [64]. PVC - PVC is still affected by anti - involution sentiment in the short term. The spot market transaction is light, and the price oscillates downward. The industry profit has expanded significantly, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [67][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price increased, and its short - term strength continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to strengthen, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to widen [71]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold 10 - contract short positions and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage. The futures price of the European line oscillated weakly, and the spot freight rate showed certain changes [73][80].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250730
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:45