集运指数（欧线）：10空单持有，10-12反套酌情减仓止盈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the Container Freight Index (European Line) fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1,460.0 points, down 1.77%, with an increase of 32 lots in positions; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1,735.0 points, up 0.74%, with a decrease of 468 lots in positions; the 10 - 12 spread widened to -275 points. The near - month 2508 contract closed at 2,111.0 points, down 3.55% [8]. - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping alliances have different pricing strategies in early August. Maersk aims to maximize the overall ship efficiency by adjusting the peak - season surcharge (PSS) and the spot price. It is necessary to observe whether ONE will further lower the FAK price and whether MSC will make dynamic adjustments [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the August and September capacities are slightly revised upwards. On the demand side, the cargo volume in early August is expected to remain resilient, and the inflection point of market cargo volume is likely to appear in mid - to - late August. In the monthly - level comparison, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand, and the fundamentals are expected to be further pressured. For the main 2510 contract, the trading logic of the market fundamentals remains to short on rallies. The anti - involution policy currently has limited impact on the container shipping industry. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 10 contract and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2508 closed at 2,111.0, down 3.55%, with a trading volume of 3,024 and an open interest of 5,926 (a decrease of 1,443); EC2510 closed at 1,460.0, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 41,659 and an open interest of 50,726 (an increase of 32); EC2512 closed at 1,735.0, up 0.74%, with a trading volume of 4,024 and an open interest of 8,131 (a decrease of 468) [1]. - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS European route index was 2,316.56 points, down 3.5% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,284.01 points, down 1.4% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,090/TEU, up 0.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,067/FEU, down 3.5% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: Different carriers have different prices for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in August. For example, Maersk's 33 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price is $2,860/FEU, and MSC's early - August price is $3,640/FEU [1][9]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.65, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.18 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average weekly capacities of the China - Europe base route are provided. In August, the capacity is slightly revised upwards to 324,000 TEU/week, and in September, it is revised upwards to 321,000 TEU/week [4][10]. 3.3 Macro News - China and the US will continue to promote the scheduled extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures [6]. - Federal Reserve Governor Kugler will be absent from this week's interest - rate meeting due to personal reasons, and the number of voting members is temporarily reduced to 11 [6]. - Hamas officials and the Israeli Prime Minister have different statements regarding the cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [6]. - Iran's top military commander said that Iran does not trust any promises from the US or Israel and is fully prepared to deal with future aggression [7].