Alcoa(US:AA) Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:46Report Information - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, and aluminum industry chain varieties have entered a shock consolidation phase. Shanghai Aluminum 2509 has a narrow range, closing down 0.22% at 20,605. The total open interest of the index has decreased by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium is reported at 40; the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -510. Alumina has stopped falling, rising 1.01% to 3,307 compared to the previous day [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August. The ore price has stopped falling and recovered. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window remains open, and the demand for delivery products supports the spot price. However, the short-term anti-involution trading has temporarily cooled down, and alumina is adjusting at a high level [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains light. The absolute high price suppresses terminal consumption, while the aluminum smelting profit is high. One can appropriately participate in shorting at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.22% at 20,605, with the index total open interest decreasing by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium at 40; the AD-AL negative spread was -510. Alumina rose 1.01% to 3,307 [8]. - Bauxite supply is loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension will gradually appear in August. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window is open, but short-term anti-involution trading has cooled down [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is the off-season for the automotive industry, with weak demand and short scrap aluminum supply. Cast aluminum follows Shanghai Aluminum in a range, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread [8]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off-season, and the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is light. High prices suppress consumption, while smelting profit is high, and one can short at high levels [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, and the canceled agreement covered a mine with about 376 million tons of bauxite [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - Guinea has revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long-idle mine rights, and the government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April, and it has now resumed after consultations with the government [10].