光大期货能化商品日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends and market conditions of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, inventory data, and supply - demand fundamentals to provide investment suggestions for each product [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, oil prices rose. WTI 9 - month contract closed up 2.50 dollars to 69.21 dollars/barrel, Brent 9 - month contract up 2.47 dollars to 72.51 dollars/barrel, and SC2509 up 12.8 yuan/barrel to 527.5 yuan/barrel. Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase supply concerns. API data shows an increase in US crude and distillate inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories. If secondary sanctions occur, it will impact the Asian market and raise energy prices [1] - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. The market structure slightly recovered. Traders expect an increase in arrivals from Europe in July. High - sulfur fuel oil in Asia faces supply pressure from Middle - East cargoes. It's advisable to stop losses on previous spread shorts and wait for new opportunities [2] - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. Entering August, northern demand will increase, and some refineries plan to resume production or increase output. However, some refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some have maintenance plans. Rainy weather affects demand, but there is potential for improvement after the rainy season. Short - term prices are supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [2] - Polyester: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures rose on Tuesday. Polyester device operations are adjusted, with some starting up and some shutting down for maintenance. The "anti - involution" market fades, but cost - side oil price support and downstream demand resilience, along with low visible inventories in TA and EG, are expected to drive polyester prices to oscillate strongly [4] - Rubber: On Tuesday, rubber futures prices fell. The European replacement tire market in Q2 2025 declined year - on - year. The "anti - involution" market fades, and macro events cause short - term wide - range oscillations in rubber prices [4][6] - Methanol: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device loads have recovered, arrival volumes have increased, downstream profits and operations are stable, and inventories are rising. It is expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [6] - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Polyolefins are gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. If the cost side does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [6] - Polyvinyl Chloride: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventories are slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis details of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, etc., such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8] Market News - Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase market concerns about supply shortages. API data shows that US crude inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 25, while gasoline inventories decreased and distillate inventories increased [10] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [27][29][33] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report analyzes the spreads of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [42][44][48] - Inter - product Spreads: It presents the spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][65] - Production Profits: The report shows the production profit trends of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][73] Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and many honors. She has served many listed companies and designed risk - management and investment strategies [75] - Du Bingqin: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and many industry honors [76] - Di Yilin: A rubber and polyester analyst, with achievements in the industry and strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities [77] - Peng Haibo: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in both financial theory and industrial operations [78]