Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Swing [1] - Cotton: Swing [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention and control. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, exposing cotton to a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1]. Summary based on Related Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 28, 2025, it was 16.43, and on July 29, 2025, it was 16.56, with a growth rate of 0.79% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 28, 2025, it was 68.3, and on July 29, 2025, it was 67.66, with a decline rate of - 0.94% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): It remained at 6050.0 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): It remained at 5915.0 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 28, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 29, 2025, it was 3280, with a decline rate of - 0.19% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 28, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 15450.0, with a growth rate of 0.32% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 28, 2025, it was 62.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 61.0, with a decline rate of - 1.61% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 28, 2025, it was - 205.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was - 197.0, with a decline rate of - 3.90% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 28, 2025, it was 143.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 136.0, with a decline rate of - 4.90% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 28, 2025, it was 65.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 60.0, with a decline rate of - 7.69% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 28, 2025, it was - 75.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 40.0, with a decline rate of - 153.33% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 28, 2025, it was 10.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was - 100.0, with a decline rate of - 1100.00% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 213.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 184.0, with a decline rate of - 13.62% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 275.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 245.0, with a decline rate of - 10.91% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 70.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 48.0, with a decline rate of - 31.43% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1544.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1555.0, with a growth rate of 0.71% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1609.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1615.0, with a growth rate of 0.37% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1534.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1655.0, with a growth rate of 7.89% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: It remained at 78.7 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: It remained at 1600.5 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1005, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 6.73 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.0997 [3]. - CF509C14000: Implied volatility is 0.1358, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.71 [3]. - CF509P14000: Implied volatility is 0.1332 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 28, 2025, it was 20150.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 19746.0, with a decline rate of - 2.00% [3]. - Cotton: On July 28, 2025, it was 9226.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 9156.0, with a decline rate of - 0.76% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].
软商品日报：受美元走强压制，软商品高位震荡-20250730
Xin Da Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:56