光大期货金融期货日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock Index Futures: The A-share market oscillated and rose, with the Wind All A index up 0.45% and a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term support for upstream cyclical sectors, and short - term capital inflows. The market is currently divided, and it is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2344 billion yuan. The start of the third round of Sino - US trade negotiations and the improvement in risk appetite led to bond market adjustments. However, the short - term bond market is expected to recover, and short - term treasury bonds may stop falling and stabilize [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market showed an upward trend, with different indices rising to varying degrees. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant policy move. The long - term logic for the stock market rise includes expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term support for upstream cyclical sectors due to anti - involution and infrastructure investment, and short - term capital inflows from a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit - loan data. The market is currently divided [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed lower on Tuesday. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations and the start of Sino - US trade negotiations affected the bond market. Short - term bond market trends are expected to improve [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 0.29%, IF rose 0.47%, IC rose 0.66%, and IM rose 0.91% [3]. - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 0.21%, the CSI 300 index rose 0.39%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.65% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.06%, TF fell 0.17%, T fell 0.24%, and TL fell 0.77% [3]. - Treasury Bond Yields: Yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased [3]. 3.3 Market News - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate in 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the April forecast, and also raised the 2026 forecast by 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected Sino - US tariffs [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: It shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - Exchange Rates: The report includes the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][25][26].