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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - After a sharp decline on Monday, the steel futures prices were driven up by the news of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. Subsequently, the double - coking products increased in positions and rose strongly at night. The results of important meetings are yet to be determined, and capital inflows and outflows intensify market fluctuations. The industry fundamentals remain in a healthy state with little change. Although there is no obvious turnaround in the terminal sector, the mid - stream has a good attitude and is not eager to sell, so the spot prices are relatively firm. In the short term, the black market fluctuates greatly, and there may still be macro - level disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see. In the long run, there is a risk of a decline from high levels as the trading focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - From the fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, which is in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output of steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has slightly decreased. The bearish driving force of iron ore fundamentals is limited, and the price is oscillating. If the market sentiment heats up again, the price may oscillate strongly [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - There are still disturbances in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted, with the overall supply slowly recovering. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been over a thousand vehicles in recent days, maintaining a high level. The coke production is temporarily stable, the rigid demand for coking coal is strong, and the upstream coal mines are continuously reducing inventory. Affected by the recent slowdown in the upward trend of the market, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders has increased, and the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down. Generally, the current supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. The impact of news - based stimuli is significantly stronger than the actual situation of the fundamentals. With the stimulation of macro - policies, the sentiment is constantly changing, and it is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate greatly [3] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The continuous increase in coke prices has continuously strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The increase in the overseas market quotation and the strengthening of the manganese silicon futures price have made manganese ore traders less willing to sell at low prices, and the port ore prices have remained stable for the time being. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profit conditions, the output of finished steel remains high and stable, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon still has resilience. However, in an environment of profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuously advancing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected that the manganese silicon price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term [3] - Silicon Iron: The production of silicon iron is expected to accelerate its recovery. The downstream steel - making demand still has resilience, and the current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy. It is expected that the price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term [3][7] 3.4 Glass - After the glass market limit - down, the market sentiment weakened rapidly today, and the production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is under cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and its own contradictions are not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, with the upcoming Politburo meeting, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely. In the long run, the over - supply pattern is difficult to change. In the short term, the warming anti - involution sentiment drives the market up. After the positive feedback, the inventory for positive arbitrage is locked, and the delivery pressure is large. In the short term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the long - term price center will still decline [7] 3.5 Steel - As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are still expectations for policy stimulus. The anti - involution sentiment continues, and the China Iron and Steel Association calls on enterprises to control production and stabilize prices. Recently, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held talks in Stockholm, Sweden, and the results need to be continuously tracked. As the parade date approaches, there are continuous disturbances from the news of steel mill production restrictions in various places, and the actual implementation effect needs to be tracked. The overall spot trading of steel is generally good, with relatively weak rigid demand and acceptable speculative demand. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The absolute value of the inventory is at a relatively low level over the years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. The steel inventory is low, the fundamental pressure is limited, there is a possibility of steel mill production restrictions before the parade, and there may still be the release of macro - level benefits. In the short term, the market is easy to rise and difficult to fall. Subsequently, the focus should be on the implementation of policies and the off - season demand performance [9] 3.6 Iron Ore - The port trading volume is 106.4 (- 6.1) million tons. The main swap contract is at 102.31 (+ 1.52) US dollars/ton, PB powder is at 780 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and Brazilian mixed ore is at 803 (+ 11) yuan/ton, equivalent to 826 yuan/ton on the futures market. The basis of Brazilian mixed ore for the 09 contract is 28 yuan/ton, 01 contract is 55 yuan/ton, and 05 contract is 77 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB powder is 95 (- 1) yuan/ton, the price difference between PB powder and Super Special powder is 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between PB powder and Brazilian mixed ore is - 23 (- 1) yuan/ton. The spot market quotation increased by 8 - 14 yuan/ton yesterday, and the port trading volume decreased. From the fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, which is in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output of steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has slightly decreased. The iron ore demand is at a high level, the supply is stable, the bearish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the price is oscillating. If the market sentiment heats up again, the price may oscillate strongly [9] 3.7 Scrap Steel - The average tax - free price of crushed materials in East China is 2156 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 1168 (+ 37) yuan/ton. This week, the rebar production has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the apparent demand has increased, with good fundamentals. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume has increased significantly this week. On the demand side, the valley - electricity profit of electric furnaces has improved, and the profit in some areas is substantial, so the daily consumption of electric furnaces has increased. The molten iron output of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap steel has narrowed, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased. In terms of inventory, the arrival volume has decreased month - on - month this week, but the daily consumption has increased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased. The scrap steel demand is at a high level, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected that the price will follow the finished steel [10] 3.8 Coke - In the futures market, coke followed coking coal, first falling and then rising, and the market price has recovered compared with before the limit - down. In the spot market, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1390 yuan/ton (- 10), and the basis of the 09 contract at the port is - 138 yuan/ton (- 34). On the supply side, the fourth round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises have been alleviated, but some enterprises are still in a loss state. The market still has expectations for price increases. At the same time, affected by environmental protection, maintenance and other reasons, the coke supply is still disturbed. On the demand side, the molten iron output has slightly decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level, the rigid demand still exists, the downstream steel mills have good profits, the production enthusiasm is acceptable, and the inventory replenishment is active. At the same time, the futures - spot traders actively divert the supply, and the coke inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. Overall, the current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and with cost support, the price increase of coke has accelerated significantly. The coke fundamentals are relatively healthy, the market mainly follows the fluctuations of coking coal, and it is expected that the short - term market will oscillate widely [11][14] 3.9 Coking Coal - In the futures market, the market is still dominated by sentiment. Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment fluctuates continuously, and coking coal has temporarily emerged from the downward trend. In the spot market, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is at 1170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is at 1150 yuan/ton (- 93). On the supply side, there are still disturbances in production at the origin, the supply is still restricted, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been over a thousand vehicles in recent days, maintaining a high level. On the demand side, the coke production is temporarily stable, the rigid demand for coking coal is strong, and the upstream coal mines are continuously reducing inventory. Affected by the recent slowdown in the upward trend of the market, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders has increased, and the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down. Generally, the current supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Subsequently, attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports. Currently, the impact of news - based stimuli is significantly stronger than the actual situation of the fundamentals. With the stimulation of macro - policies, the sentiment is constantly changing, and it is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate greatly [15] 3.10 Silicon Manganese - Yesterday, the market's fear of high prices was digested to some extent, and there are still expectations for anti - involution policies. The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. In the spot market, downstream purchases are relatively cautious, but the futures market performance is strong, and the spot quotation remains firm. Currently, the ex - factory price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the quotation of 45.0% Australian manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton - degree (0). On the cost side, the continuous increase in coke prices has continuously strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The increase in the overseas market quotation and the strengthening of the manganese silicon futures price have made manganese ore traders less willing to sell at low prices, and the port ore prices have remained stable for the time being. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profit conditions, the output of finished steel remains high and stable, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon still has resilience. However, in an environment of profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuously advancing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. It is necessary to continuously track the policy trends regarding specific production - restriction policy requirements. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited. In the short term, it is expected that the manganese silicon price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate. In the future, the difficulty of market inventory reduction will increase, and in the medium - to - long - term, the upside potential of the price still needs to be viewed with caution [17] 3.11 Silicon Iron - The fear of high prices has been alleviated, and the market sentiment remains warm under the expectation of anti - involution policies. Yesterday, the silicon iron futures price increased significantly. The spot quotation generally remains firm, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is still cautious. Currently, the natural block of 72 - grade silicon iron in Ningxia is at 5550 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is at 17100 yuan/ton (0). On the supply side, the industry profit has improved significantly, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for resuming production has increased. The production of silicon iron is expected to accelerate its recovery. On the demand side, the steel output remains stable at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand still has resilience. In the case of magnesium metal, magnesium plants maintain a firm price attitude, but the market trading atmosphere is light, and the price of magnesium ingots remains stable. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy. In the short term, it is expected that the price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate. However, in the future, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap, and in the medium - to - long - term, the upside potential of the price still needs to be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [18]