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中泰国际每日晨讯-20250730
ZHONGTAI INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES·2025-07-30 02:07

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524 points, down 38 points or 0.2%, after a 1.2% intraday decline, indicating resilience despite early pressure[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.4%, closing at 5,644 points, reflecting a similar trend[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 267 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 12.72 billion through the Stock Connect, showing strong support[1] Market Trends - Since mid-July, cumulative net inflow through Stock Connect has reached HKD 116 billion over the past 20 trading days, indicating increased investor interest[1] - The market is experiencing a high risk appetite, particularly in the biotech and brokerage sectors, with several biotech stocks hitting new highs[1] Short-term Risks - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term adjustment risks due to three factors: 1. Technical indicators are overbought, with the 50-day and 250-day moving averages at extreme levels of 93%[2] 2. August has historically been a weak month for the index, with an average decline of 2.1% over the past 15 years and a rise rate of only 26.7%[2] 3. The US dollar may rebound, as it has historically increased by an average of 0.1% in August, potentially pressuring emerging markets like Hong Kong[2] Policy Impact - Government policies, such as the implementation of a nationwide childcare subsidy starting January 1, 2025, are expected to boost market sentiment[3] - The healthcare sector saw a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index up 3.8%, driven by strong performances in innovative drugs and medical devices[4] Real Estate Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with a total volume of 1.4 million square meters sold, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 129.8, up from 101.3 a year ago, suggesting increasing supply pressure[7] - Land transaction volumes also dropped significantly, down 48.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in real estate development activity[8]