Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: Repeatedly oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillating [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Core Views - Steel: The rebar futures market saw significant long - position building and upward movement. Spot prices rose sharply, and mainstream steel mills' resource supply was low, causing spot resources to be tight. With rumors of anti - cut - throat competition and steel mill production cuts, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be oscillating with a bullish bias [1]. - Iron ore: The price of the main iron ore futures contract increased. Supply showed a slight increase, while demand (hot metal production) decreased slightly, and port inventories increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory continued to decline, and the domestic coal mine production and Mongolian coal port clearance volume recovered. With the fourth round of coke price increases implemented and some plans for a fifth round, the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market rose. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and some coking enterprises planned a fifth round. There were rumors of steel mill production cuts, and steel mills' acceptance of price increases was fair. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [1]. - Manganese silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The market sentiment was volatile, and the "anti - cut - throat competition" meeting boosted confidence. The manganese ore price increased, driving up costs. If the industry controls production through self - discipline and the demand for rebar increases, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The short - term market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The production profit in July improved, and both production and demand increased marginally. With many important events at the end of the month, and no strong drivers for either bulls or bears, the short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.05%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 239,000 lots in positions. Spot prices in Tangshan and Hangzhou rose. Mainstream steel mills' resource supply was low, and there were rumors affecting the market [1]. - Iron ore: The main contract i2509 closed at 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (1.5%), with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, while hot metal production decreased slightly, and port inventories increased [1]. - Coking coal: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1120.5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (1.82%), with a decrease of 55,424 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and Mongolian coal port clearance volume recovered [1]. - Coke: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1633 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton (1.52%), with a decrease of 2,353 lots in positions. Port spot prices decreased. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and some coking enterprises planned a fifth round [1]. - Manganese silicon: The main contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton, up 2.78%, with a decrease of 6,026 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. The market sentiment was volatile, and the cost was driven up by the rising manganese ore price [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 3.52%, with an increase of 769 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Production profit improved in July, and both production and demand increased marginally [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: For various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 months) changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts for each variety also changed, with different trends in different regions [4]. - Spot prices: Spot prices of different varieties in different regions had various changes, such as increases in rebar, hot - rolled coil, and some ferrous alloys, and a decrease in coke at the port [4]. - Profits and spreads: Rebar's盘面利润 and different varieties' price ratios (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) also changed [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon for different contracts over different time periods [16][17][18][20][22]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][28][30][31][32][34][36]. - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It includes charts of the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [38][39][41][42]. - 3.5 Rebar Profits: The report shows the profit charts of rebar, including盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][47].
黑色商品日报-20250730
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-30 02:08