有色商品日报-20250730

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated strongly, rising 0.41% to $9,803/ton; SHFE copper rose 0.14% to 79,090 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still in a loss state. The labor market shows resilience, and there are certain progresses in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, with the upcoming Fed's July interest - rate meeting and the impending US tariff on copper on August 1st, the market short - term volatility will increase, and the weekly market should be viewed with caution [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The spot price of aluminum ingots remained flat. Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite starts to decline. There is a cost support, and there is a certain risk of short squeeze under low warehouse receipts. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has changed marginally, leading to smooth inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy currently lacks an independent driver [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.62% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.39% to 122,380 yuan/ton. The short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment and show a weak trend. Fundamentally, there is little change, presenting a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Copper: The labor market data shows little change, indicating resilience. Sino - US trade negotiations have made some progress, and the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories have different changes. The off - season affects consumption, but some enterprises replenish stocks in advance. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting and the upcoming US tariff on copper on August 1st will increase market volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina futures and spot prices show different trends. The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite exports. There is cost support, and there is a short - squeeze risk under low warehouse receipts. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum changes, leading to inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy lacks an independent driver [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rise. The inventory changes, and the prices of nickel - related products show different trends. The short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and the fundamentals show little change, presenting a volatile operation [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the scrap - refined price difference decreased. LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper inventories changed, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The LME0 - 3 premium and CIF bill of lading price decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead and the price of recycled lead remained stable, while the price of reduced lead decreased. The LME lead inventory increased, and the SHFE lead inventory increased slightly [4]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased. The LME aluminum inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [5]. - Nickel: The prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and some new - energy nickel products decreased. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased [5]. - Zinc: The main - contract settlement price decreased, and the spot price decreased. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE zinc inventory increased. The social inventory increased [6]. - Tin: The main - contract settlement price and LME price decreased. The spot price and tin - concentrate price decreased. The LME and SHFE tin inventories increased [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][45]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research, a senior researcher of precious metals, etc.; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [47][48].