中美谈判结果落地前，价格波动预计依旧较大

Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$1.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton [1] - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,645 yuan/ton and closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 127,217 lots, and the open interest was 117,616 lots. The highest price was 22,725 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,580 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, a change of -3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the spot market, the spot premium is overall. The import ore TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. Domestic smelting profits remain high, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Smelters' raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for the ore end [4] - On the consumption side, the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, overseas inventory has been increasing continuously. A rapid increase in social inventory will suppress zinc prices [4] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]