方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250730

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term price lacks an obvious upward driver. Zinc has an increase in supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short - sold, and the fundamentals of tin are weak. Lead shows a range - bound trend, and nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation [3][4][5][6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Part One: Logic of Non - ferrous Metals Operation and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector adjusts and falls after taking profits in the domestic anti - involution stage. The market focuses on trade negotiations and domestic policies. The US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals [11] - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal - Copper: It is expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 and pressure at 80000 - 82000. Suggested to buy at low prices [13] - Zinc: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23100. Suggested to short at high prices [13] - Aluminum Industry Chain: It is expected to be weakly volatile. Suggested short - selling for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [13][14] - Tin: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000. Suggested short - selling [14] - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400. Suggested to buy at low prices [14][15] - Nickel: It is expected to be bearish, with support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 122000 - 123000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] - Stainless Steel: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 12300 - 12400 and pressure at 12800 - 13000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] 2. Part Two: Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market - The closing prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are presented [16] 3. Part Three: Position Analysis of Non - ferrous Metals - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on net long and short positions, their changes, and influencing factors for different varieties [18] 4. Part Four: Spot Market of Non - ferrous Metals - The spot prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [19][21] 5. Part Five: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][26][28][33][39][41][46][52] 6. Part Six: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [54][56][59][62][66][69][70] 7. Part Seven: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of copper, zinc, and aluminum are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [72][73][75]