国投期货综合晨报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical game window has been advanced, and the market has short - term upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors in Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and focus on the US ADP employment, Q2 GDP and the Fed meeting [3]. - Various commodities show different trends. Some are subject to supply - demand factors, some are affected by policies such as "anti - involution", and some are influenced by international trade negotiations and weather conditions [2 - 46]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - Crude Oil: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. Geopolitical factors and trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and the short - term market has upward support [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Macroeconomic and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but the cracking spread of fuel oil is expected to be under pressure due to weak fundamentals [22]. - Asphalt: The August domestic production volume is expected to decline. Demand recovery is delayed, and the inventory reduction rhythm slows down. The price follows the trend of crude oil with limited upward space [23]. - Urea: The futures contract runs at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is likely to run in a range [24]. - Methanol: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port inventory is unexpectedly reduced. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [25]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Reduced risk - aversion demand suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated overnight. The market focuses on tariff agreements and the Fed meeting. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, the price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. In the off - season, demand declines, and inventory increases. It is in short - term adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price is in a callback, with increased supply and weak demand. The short - term direction is unclear, and the medium - term idea is to short on rebounds [8]. - Lead: The supply - demand of lead is weak. The price rebounds slowly, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. One can try to go long with a light position [9]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel price fluctuates. The hype of the "anti - involution" theme cools down, and the nickel price may return to fundamentals. Wait for short - selling opportunities [10]. - Tin: The tin price fluctuates. There is short - term support at 265,000 yuan. The long - term supply pressure suppresses the price, and high - level short positions can be held [11]. - Silicon - based Metals - Silicon Manganese: The price is expected to rise in the short term due to improved manganese ore inventory expectations and "anti - involution" influence [19]. - Silicon Iron: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese. There is some upward drive in the short term [20]. Building Materials and Related Products - Steel Products - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session steel prices strengthened. Rebar demand improved, and hot - rolled coil demand declined. The market is supported by cost and policy expectations [15]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price rose overnight. Supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices of coke and coking coal rose. The coking industry's fourth - round price increase is in progress, and inventory is decreasing. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on coking coal [17][18]. - Glass: The glass price rose at night. Industry profit slightly recovered, but long - term demand is weak. Wait for policy signals [31]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash price rose at night. Inventory declined, and production increased slightly. There is still supply - demand pressure after the emotional boost fades [33]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oilseeds - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The US soybean good - quality rate is high, and the price is under pressure. Sino - US trade negotiations and weather are the focus [34]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be bought on dips. Pay attention to weather and policies [35]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed price rose, and the rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Adopt a short - term neutral strategy [36]. - Corn: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [38]. - Other Agricultural Products - Eggs: The egg price fluctuates slightly. The far - month contracts are stronger. Be cautious of the reverse fluctuation of spot and near - month contracts [40]. - Cotton: The US cotton good - quality rate declined, and the Brazilian harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton is in high - level oscillation. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - Sugar: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar production has uncertainties. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - Apples: The new - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price has increased. The market focuses on the new - season yield estimate [43]. - Timber: The timber price is expected to rise. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Adopt a long - biased strategy [44]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp price is likely to return to low - level oscillation. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak [45]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The market freight rate inflection point is approaching. The Sino - US tariff exemption extension may boost market sentiment [21]. - Equity Index: A - shares rose, and the futures index also closed higher. The market focuses on the Fed meeting and domestic policies. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market may face increased volatility, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [47].