Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Both the soybean meal and corn sectors are rated as cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. With favorable weather in the main U.S. soybean - growing regions, soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro - factors are significantly disturbing, and the trade relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [1][3] - For corn, the price had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday. On the domestic front, the supply side has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors, and the demand side has a decline in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises and sufficient inventories in feed enterprises. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [4][6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2983 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - U.S. Data: As of July 27, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 76%, and the pod - setting rate was 41%. As of July 24, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 40.97 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 4720.33 million tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 93% of the annual export target [2] Market Analysis - The soybean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - growing regions is conducive to soybean growth. Macro - factors are disturbing, and attention should be paid to policy changes. Domestically, the supply is loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.73%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - U.S. and Brazil Data: As of July 24, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 60.34 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase, reaching 86.4% of the USDA forecast target. In Brazil, the second - season corn harvest progress as of July 24 was 68%, and the 2024/25 corn production is expected to be 136.3 million tons [4][5] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range fluctuation. On the supply side, the market sentiment has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still market risks [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]
农产品日报:关注政策变化,豆粕偏弱震荡-20250730
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-30 02:52