高低硫价差走扩，上行空间或有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] Core View of the Report - Recently, the fundamentals and market trends of low-sulfur fuel oil are slightly stronger than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-low sulfur spread is rising, but there is no significant upward space under the current industrial trends [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.99% at 2,917 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.59% at 3,640 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, the crude oil price strengthened again, driving up energy commodities including FU and LU, but the oil market still faces the expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance above [1] - The fundamentals of the high-sulfur fuel oil market have been weak recently, the market structure has been continuously adjusted, the crack spread has significantly declined from its high level, the spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. Supply from the Middle East and Russia has increased, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for peak-season purchases by power plants. There are no signs of large-scale improvement in refinery demand. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the Asia-Pacific market is expected to receive some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely disappeared in the medium term. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1] - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently. Brazilian shipments to port have increased, and Kuwait's exports have also resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited. In particular, Kuwait's exports are still some distance from their peak. There are no obvious contradictions in the Asia-Pacific spot market. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in the previous short FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) can be appropriately stopped for profit [3] - Cross-period: Positions in the previous FU reverse spread can be gradually stopped for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]