马士基最新一周报价再度下调，运价进入下行周期-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The freight rates have entered a downward cycle. The August contract is experiencing high-level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate peak likely having emerged. The October contract is mainly for short allocation during the off-season, with a focus on the downward slope of freight rates. The December contract follows the off-peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategies are to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and to short the October contract on rallies [1][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price As of July 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index on the European route was 74,980 lots, with a single-day trading volume of 50,661 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1,521.30, 1,370.00, 1,504.90, 2,111.00, 1,460.00, and 1,735.00 respectively [5]. 2. Spot Price On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2,079.00 USD/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2,142.00 USD/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3,612.00 USD/FEU. On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1,284.01 points [5]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply In August 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports was 303,200 TEU, and in September, it was 289,800 TEU. In August, there were 4 blank sailings, all from the OA Alliance, and 5 TBNs; in September, there were 3 TBNs. Maersk added a chartered vessel, Beijing Maersk (15,780 TEU), in Week 32 and is expected to add Maersk Emden (13,092 TEU) in Week 34. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU [2][5]. 4. Supply Chain Geopolitical events include Houthi hypersonic missile attacks on Israeli airports and the departure of a Hamas delegation for Gaza ceasefire negotiations from Qatar. The report also mentions the daily passage of container ships through the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal [1]. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific information on demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general analysis of contract trends related to demand and seasonality.